It is no longer news that tomorrow’s bye-election in Ibadan North will be a straight contest between the APC and the PDP. And if we must be honest, the two political leaders at the helm of these parties , Penkele and GSM are desperately need the win, though for different reasons.
For Penkele, this election carries significant weight for his political career and his long-term ambitions. It is a litmus test of his ability to lead the APC to victory in Oyo State ahead of the 2027 general elections. Unlike in 2019, when he had to obey the hand that chose him, and in 2023, when he was forced out of the party. This time, Penkele being the current minister from Oyo State is fully in charge. He is undisputed leader and owner of the structure. With this authority, he has been able to influence the emergence of Murphy as the APC flag bearer for the Ibadan North federal constituency bye-election. A victory tomorrow would not just give the APC a crucial seat but would also cement Penkele’s authority as the man to watch in Oyo APC politics.
For GSM, whose tenure as Governor of Oyo State ends in 2027, the stakes are equally high. A PDP win would serve as a loud affirmation that he still enjoys strong grassroots support, even as his final term winds down. More importantly, the PDP candidate in this race is widely believed to be GSM’s personal choice, a product of his political calculation and influence. Delivering this victory would be a strategic statement to party loyalists and potential successors, proving that GSM still has the political machinery to sway elections and make winning decisions.
Beyond personal ambitions, tomorrow’s election will also be a subtle referendum on both leaders’ grip on their political structures, their grassroots mobilization capacity, and their ability to outplay each other in what promises to be a tightly contested race. Whoever emerges victorious will not just claim the Ibadan North seat , they will claim bragging rights that could shape Oyo State politics heading into 2027.
Apostle Asimiyu writes from Akinyele Local Government.
